With the Academy Awards just a few days away (Sunday at 8 p.m. ET on ABC)
we here at Into the Hill thought that we would offer an Oscar preview in this
week’s Friday Film Review. Who are the favorites? Who are the dark horses?
Who doesn’t have a chance? Best actor? Best cinematography?
Best picture? We have all the answers!

ACADEMY AWARD PREVIEW:

First of all, these are the nominations in the major categories for this year:

BEST PICTURE: There Will Be Blood No Country For Old Men Juno Michael Clayton Atonement	BEST ACTOR: George Clooney - Michael Clayton Johnny Depp - Sweeney Todd Daniel Day-Lewis - There Will Be Blood Tommy Lee Jones - In The Valley of Elah Viggo Mortensen - Eastern Promises
BEST ACTRESS: Ellen Page - Juno Mario Cotillard - La Vie En Rose Julie Christie - Away From Her Laura Linney - The Savages Cate Blanchett - Elizabeth: The Golden Age	BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR: Casey Affleck - The Assassination of Jesse James by the Coward Robert Ford Javier Bardem - No Country for Old Men Hal Holbrook - Into the Wild Philip Seymour Hoffman - Charlie Wilson’s War Tom Wilkinson - Michael Clayton
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS: Cate Blanchett - I’m Not There Ruby Dee - American Gangster Saoirse Ronan - Atonement Amy Ryan - Gone Baby Gone Tilda Swinton - Michael Clayton	BEST DIRECTOR: Julian Schnabel - The Diving Bell and the Butterfly Jason Reitman - Juno Tony Gilroy - Michael Clayton Joel Coen and Ethan Coen - No Country for Old Men Paul Thomas Anderson - There Will Be Blood
BEST FOREIGN FILM: Beaufort - Israel The Counterfeiters - Austria Katyn - Poland Mongol - Kazakhstan 12 - Russia	ADAPTED SCREENPLAY: Christopher Hampton - Atonement Sarah Polley - Away from Her Ronald Harwood - The Diving Bell and the Butterfly Joel Coen & Ethan Coen - No Country for Old Men Paul Thomas Anderson - There Will Be Blood
ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY: Diablo Cody - Juno Nancy Oliver - Lars and the Real Girl Tony Gilroy - Michael Clayton Brad Bird, Jan Pinkava and Jim Capobianco - Ratatouille Tamara Jenkins - The Savages	ANIMATED FEATURE FILM: Persepolis Ratatouille Surf’s Up
CINEMATOGRAPHY: The Assassination of Jesse James by the Coward Robert Ford Atonement The Diving Bell and the Butterfly No Country for Old Men There Will Be Blood	DOCUMENTARY FEATURE (full length): No End in Sight Operation Homecoming: Writing the Wartime Experience Sicko Taxi to the Dark Side War/Dance

THE BUZZ:

BEST PICTURE:

It appears that the contest for the best picture of 2007 is down to the Coen Brother’s No Country For Old Men and P.T. Anderson’s There Will Be Blood. Since it’s release No Country has been a favorite of critics around the world and they might just ride that support to victory. Blood is a good possibility but its such a bizzare, dark, un-American story (in short, what the Academy tends to shy away from) that it may lose out to the Coen’s violent noir/western film.

No Country managed to win the best picture nod from the Screen Actors Guild (SGA), The Directors Guild of America (DGA), and the Producers Guild of America (PGA), each of which tend to be fairly consistent predictors of Oscar success. What might keep No Country from running away with that little golden statuette, though, is that the other American films nominated probably will steal some votes.

Juno, while a long shot, is the the darling of the American public and will certainly steal some votes. Ellen Page, Jason Reitman, and Co. have created a thoroughly engrossing, hilarious, and mature look at teen pregnancy, family, and the nature of love. Critics love it. America loves it. But it’s unlikely the Academy will love it enough to give it the top nod. And, of course, no comedy has won the award for best picture since Woody Allen’s 1977 classic, Annie Hall.

The Academy has an affinity for anything George Clooney so Michael Clayton will also nab a fair amount of votes but its not exactly Academy fare. Tony Gilroy’s film is a really great piece of classical, suave, near perfect film-making reminiscent of the great films of the 60’s and 70’s. It is the only film to receive multiple nominations for acting which has been a solid predictor in the past. This year? Probably won’t help much. There is little to complain about in it but it doesn’t resonate quite as much the other nominations. It also has probably the least amount of recent buzz.

Blood, released by the same production as No Country, has been hailed as the great masterpiece of our time and will steal some votes from the younger, more open minded of the Academy’s members. Some recent buzz induced by more widespread release will help its cause, as will Daniel Day-Lewis’ terrific performance, but it is almost certainly too long and strange for most of the voters. Don’t be surprised though if it does win; perhaps the Academy will make amends for voting against classic films like Citizen Kane and Raging Bull.

Then there is Atonement. Joe Wright’s lovely-to-look-at period piece will grab a handful of votes by way of the British voters. Apparently the older voters like it as well and, of course, it did receive the Golden Globe for the same award several weeks ago which, while not the most effective predictor, does say something about the respect and buzz the pic has surrounding it. But it too is long and doesn’t have much of a glow surrounding it anymore. Critics like it but not overwhelmingly so. Atonement is a long shot.

BEST ACTOR:

Without a doubt, Daniel Day-Lewis, who performance as Daniel Plainview in There Will Be Blood might be the best performance in fifteen years, is the favorite to win the Oscar for best actor. If anyone else even comes close to winning it will be a shocker. It’s not that Depp, Clooney, Mortensen, and Jones weren’t outstanding, because they were. Day-Lewis’ performance was just that good. In fact, his performance was perhaps the single greatest achievement in cinema in 2007. Day-Lewis received the SAG award for best performance which does tend to be a pretty good predictor of Oscar success. That his fellow actors voted him the best nearly unanimously is telling.

Yes, there were other nominees: Jones was great in In the Valley of Elah but few people saw the film and the buzz has been minimal. Mr. Jones is one of the great actors of this era (see his turn in No Country and 06’s The Burial of Melquiades Estrada) and, sadly, seems to go largely unrecognized for his work. Too bad for him this was the year of blood.

Clooney was good enough as Michael Clayton in the film of the same name and in any other year would have a good chance at winning the award - mostly because he is George Clooney. That being said I think there were three or four other actors who deserved nominations in his place. But more on that later.

I am not exactly sure what people saw in Depp’s performance in Sweeney Todd that warranted an Oscar nomination (he’s not much of a singer by the way) but somehow it has managed to garner some decent buzz and he is a dark-horse in the race.

Before Blood came out, many critics believed Mortensen was the frontrunner for his performance as a Russian mafia bodyguard in the sorely over-rated Eastern Promises, but the film came out too long ago and there still seems to be an Aragorn stigma hanging around Mortensen’s head. He could steal a fair number of votes from Day-Lewis, but probably not enough to do much damage. In all likelihood the four other nominee will steal votes from another and wind up in a close race for second place. Day-Lewis should finally receive his long deserved second Oscar.

BEST ACTRESS:

First the nominees who seem to have no chance: Laura Linney and Cate Blanchett. Linney was good in The Savages but few people saw the film and the buzz is minimal. Blanchett recently won an Oscar and is nominated for supporting actress. The buzz is almost non existent as the mediocre Elizabeth: the Golden Age was a major flop.

The favorite is the beautiful and reclusive Julie Christie for her lovely and heart breaking performance in Sarah Polley’s Away From Her. She has won the best actress award from the National Board of Review, the SAG, and the Golden Globes. Christie won an Oscar 42 years for the film Darling and if the buildup is any predictor she will win again on Sunday. The award is clearly hers to lose.

However, French actress Marion Cottilard has earned a great deal of respect for her astounding transformation into disturbed French singer Edith Piaf in the bio-pic La Vie En Rose. The film is powerful and so Miss Cottilard’s performance. It wouldn’t be a complete surprise if she wound up claiming enough votes to steal the Oscar. Plus, it has recently been note ad naseum that the Academy likes newcomers.

The same principle can be applied to Canadian wunderkind Ellen Page whose talky turn in the brash and absolutely endearing Jason Retiman film Juno, took the movie-going public by surprise and coaxed even the most pretentious cinephiles simultaneously into tears and fits of laughter. If not for Christie’s early lead and brilliant performance in Away From Her the award might just have been Miss Page’s to win. As it is she stands a fair chance of upsetting the basket and walking away with the golden apple of them all.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR:

In my opinion, no category is as full of deserving nominees as this years crop of supporting actors. Javier Bardem is firmly entrenched as the front runner for his villainous characterization of Cormac McCarthy’s evil Anton Chigurh in No Country. He is evil, frightening, and cold blooded, and he does it a language not his own. Despite solid performances by the other nominees it will be a shock if Bardem doesn’t go to sleep sometime very early Monday morning with an Oscar statuette somewhere nearby. Perhaps cradles in his arms.

The longest long shot in this category looks to be Phillip Seymour Hoffman in the also overrated Charlie Wilson’s War. He was excellent but he has received little buzz due in part, perhaps, to the fact that he was in three films this year and won an Academy Award in 2005 for his role as Truman Capote in Bennett Miller’s Capote.

Hal Holbrook has a strong following who hope he receives the award for his role in Into the Wild but it is extremely unlikely that he will receive many votes.

The ever impressive Tom Wilkinson outshines Mr. Clooney in Michael Clayton in his most haunting and nuanced role since 2001’s In the Bedroom for which Mr. Wilkinson was nominated as best actor. He will receive a fair number of votes but likely not enough to supplant Bardem as the winner.

Casey Affleck probably has the best chance of upsetting Bardem for his performance as Robert Ford in much-maligned and sorely overlooked The Assassination of Jesse James by the Coward Robert Ford. His is a career making performance and is, in many ways, superior to Bardem’s. But Bardem is far out in front that he will be relegated to second or third place. The fact that the movie received such a cold reception at the box office doesn’t help his case either.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS:

This category is still completely up in the air as no clear-cut favorite has emerged. Cate Blanchett was amazing in her much publicized role as Bob Dylan in Todd Hayne’s I’m Not There and the buzz has been favorable of late but her recent nod in this category for her role as Katherine Hepburn in The Aviator might wind up standing against her.

Atonement’s Saiorise Ronan was brilliant as the youngest version of Briony Tallis but is likely a long shot. However, as last year taught us (when Abigail Breslin won in this category), the Academy voters have a soft spot in their hearts for sweet young talents like Ronan.

Amy Ryan was wonderfully awful in Gone Baby Gone and could easily win. She, like Marion Cotillard, is a beautiful woman who got ugly for her role. Pure Oscar bait.

The SAG award went to veteran Ruby Dee for her role as Denzel’s mama in American Gangster. She is well respected but has too long gone unrewarded. Many critics believe she is the favorite.

On the other hand an active group of critics love Tilda Swinton’s devious role as Karen Crowder in Michael Clayton. The Academy likes character actors like Swinton and that avid support might just help conjure up a win for the former white witch of Narnia.

BEST DIRECTOR:

None of the nominees in the category would be surprising winners. Each are superb film-makers will a keen eye for detail and a great ability to tell a captivating story.

The current favorite(s) appears to be the Coen brothers for their work guiding No Country For Old Men to its eight Oscar nominations. They certainly deserve it as their film has few flaws. They managed to snag the DGA’s award and the buzz has been consistently building. However, the Academy apparently has a history of snubbing directorial duos so they may, once again, find themselves snubbed come Sunday night.

Should the Academy not give the award to the Coens The Diving Bell and the Butterfly director Julian Schnabel might be the recipient of most of the votes. Not a long shot by any means.

Tony Gilroy, director of Michael Clayton, has said that he never intended to make an Oscar winning film, just a good, solid, film in the classical style. He succeeded. Sort of. He made a great film, but also got that nomination, thanks in large part to his stellar ensemble cast. He is probably the longest long shot. But, make no mistake, his work here is great. He created one of the more polished films of 2007.

America loves Juno so Jason Reitman, director of Thank You For Smoking, has a chance. The buzz has kind of come to a halt as best as I can tell, and with so many great, epic, high brow films to compete with he seems to be on the outside looking in.

Paul Thomas Anderson is the most intriguing of the bunch. He probably won’t win, but his work in There Will Be Blood is the most complex, deep, and beautiful of any film on the list. Anderson has a unique and creative vision, the problem is that it might be too unique and creative for the Academy. According to critics like Roger Ebert he is the dark horse and don’t be surprised at all if he nabs the top award for directing.

FOREIGN FILM:

It’s kind of a toss up at this point. Actually, no matters who wins most critics will be furious because films like The Diving Bell and the Butterfly and 4 Months, 3 Weeks, and 2 Days were not even nominated. Current favorite appears to The Counterfeiters.

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY:

Almost certainly will be awarded to the Coen’s for their adaption of Cormac MacCarthy’s novel by the same name as their film. Anderson is the dark horse for his adaption of an Upton Sinclair novel called “Oil!” but he changed the story and characters so much that he likely won’t come away with a victory here either.

Atonement could potentially pull an upset in this category but it’s early buzz has almost completely evaporated.

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY:

If Juno writer Diablo Cody doesn’t leave Hollywood without this award the writers just might go back on strike. It is hers to lose. The film is the screenplay. Without the words being the kind of words they were the film wouldn’t be what it was: which was America’s favorite Oscar nominated film this year. You know what I mean if you have seen the film. If you haven’t? Well, shame on you.

BEST ANIMATED FEATURE FILM:

Once again a clear cut favorite: Pixar’s fabulous Ratatouille. Critics love it. Movie-goers love it. Persepolis could make a charge and challenge but if Pixar doesn’t win in this category it will be one of the bigger surprises of the Oscars.

BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY:

Each of the nominees in this category are deserving but the current favorite seems to be No Country For Old Men which was photographed by the fabulous veteran Roger Deakins. His images here fit the story so well: they are harsh despite their beauty and perfectly encapsulate the various emotions felt by the various characters in the Coen’s film.

Similarly, Robert Elswit’s work on There Will Be Blood is deserving for the same reasons. With No Country likely winning in several other cateogires and Deakin’s work in another film (Assassination of Jesse James) also up for the award, Elswit’s film might get the nod. Some critics think it is the frontrunner.

Janusz Kaminski’s work on The Diving Bell and the Butterfly is in the running but since he has won twice already many voters might look elsewhere.

Deakins work on Assassination was fabulous but likely will be canceled out by his work on No Country.

Don’t count out Atonement either. It contains a lush, painterly, tapestry of images, and an astounding five minute tracking shot with no CG.

Expect either No Country or Blood to receive this award.

BEST DOCUMENTARY:

Once again a category where several other film deserved nominations: Into Great Silence, King of Kong, Manufactured Landscapes, and The Devil Came On Horseback all are riveting and overlooked.

As it stands now No End In Sight appears to be the favorite. It is possible though that the Iraq war docs might cancel each other out and let Michael Moore grab another Oscar for his popular doc Sicko.

War/Dance, about kids in an African war zone, remains a possibility but is certainly the dark horse.

There are many other categories like visual effects, art direction, and editing, but for the sake of time and space (and your likely lack of interest) we’ll skip those.

WHAT I THINK:

FILM:
Will Win: No Country For Old Men. The buzz is too strong at this point.
Should Win: There Will Be Blood. For more on why I think this is the best movie of 2007 see my review exclusive to Into the Hill.
Got robbed of a nomination: Assassination of Jesse James By the Coward Robert Ford; Lars and the Real Girl; Zodiac; I’m Not There. Four of my favorites of the year were all overlooked. Too bad; they are all powerful and beautiful films.

ACTOR:
Will Win: Daniel Day-Lewis
Should Win: Daniel Day-Lewis. See above linked review for more of my thoughts on his performance.
Got robbed of a nomination: Emile Hirsch - Into the Wild; Ryan Gosling - Lars and the Real Girl.

ACTRESS:
Will Win: Julie Christie
Should Win: I loved Ellen Page in Juno but it’s hard to say anybody was any better than Christie this year.
Got robbed: I actually thought they got this about right this year.

SUPPORTING ACTOR:
Will Win: Javier Bardem
Should Win: Casey Affleck
Got robbed: Albert Finney - Amazing Grace; Mark Ruffalo - Zodiac; Gordon Pinsent - Away From Her

SUPPORTING ACTRESS:
Will Win: Ruby Dee
Should Win: Cate Blanchett.
Got Robbed: Hard to argue here as well.

DIRECTOR:
Will Win: Joel and Ethan Coen
Should Win: Paul Thomas Anderson
Got robbed: Andrew Dominik - Assassination of Jesse James; David Fincher - Zodiac

FOREIGN FILM:
Will Win: The Counterfeiters
Should Win: ?
Got robbed: 4 Months, 3 Weeks, 2 Days, Syndromes and Century

ADAPTED SCREENPLAY:
Will Win: Coens for No Country For Old Men
Should Win: Wouldn’t mind seeing Away From Her stealing this one. Polley’s adaption here is beautiful.
Got robbed: David Fincher - Zodiac (adapted from journals)

ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY:
Will Win: Diablo Cody - Juno
Should Win: Ditto, though Brad Bird’s (and co.) work on Ratatouille is more than worthy.
Got robbed: Todd Haynes - I’m Not There (despite it’s being based on true stories)

ANIMATED FILM:
Will Win: Ratatouille
Should Win: Ratatouille
Got robbed: From what I hear, Paprika

CINEMATOGRAPHY:
Will Win: No Country For Old Men
Should Win: There Will Be Blood
Got robbed: Gone Baby Gone

DOCUMENTARY:
Will Win: No End In Sight
Should Win: Into Great Silence
Got Robbed: Into Great Silence; The Devil Came On Horseback

This was one of the best years in a long time for American cinema. Many of the films that came out this year will go down in history as some of the best ever. We have the privilege of enjoying them right now, many still on the big screen, and watching them change film forever. I for one say let’s be sure we take advantage of that privilege.

David Kern enjoys southern gothic literature, folk music, and green tea. Mythical figures intrigue him and he has an unnatural affection for cinema. For more of his film reviews go to www.besidethequeue.wordpress.com. Join him Sunday evening as he blogs his way through the Oscars.

This entry was posted on Friday, February 22nd, 2008 at 1:18 pm and is filed under Film Reviews. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. You can leave a response, or trackback from your own site.